Peak China? The Battle for Global Economic Supremacy
Event Description
China’s rise is often discussed in terms of when, or whether, it will overtake the West. But a more fundamental question may be whether China’s economic and social model can sustain its ambitions long enough to achieve global supremacy.
Join Roddy Gow in conversation with economist and author George Magnus as they explore the increasingly adversarial economic struggle between China and the West. Unlike the Cold War, this contest is being fought primarily through industrial policy, trade, technology and financial power.
Drawing on themes from his new book, George will examine the contradictions within China’s economy, the power of the narratives surrounding its rise, and the consequences for a world order increasingly shaped by rivalry between China and the United States.
Themes will include:
- Whether China’s economic and social model can sustain its global ambitions
- The divide between China’s manufacturing economy and its larger, stagnating non-manufacturing sectors
- China’s industrial policies, mercantilism and the emerging “new China shock”
- Perception, narrative and the Chinese Communist Party’s influence on how China’s rise is understood
- De-dollarisation, US-China statecraft and the growing role of middle powers in a fracturing global system
Speaker
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George MagnusIndependent Economist and CommentatorGeorge Magnus is an independent economist and commentator, and Research Associate at the China Centre, Oxford University, and at the School of Oriental and African Studies, London.
George was the Chief Economist, and then Senior Economic Adviser at UBS Investment Bank from 1995-2012. Whilst at UBS, he served for four years as the Chair of the Investment Committee of the pension and life assurance fund. For four years until 2016, he served finally as an external senior adviser with clients of the investment bank. He had previously worked as the Chief Economist at SG Warburg (1987-1995), and before that in a senior capacity before ‘Big Bang’ at Laurie Milbank/Chase Securities, and before that, Bank of America in London and San Francisco.
George is the author of ‘Red Flags: Why Xi’s China is in Jeopardy’, and ‘The Age of Aging’ (2008), which investigated the effects of the unique experience of demographic change on the global economy; and Uprising: will emerging markets shape or shake the world economy?