In a recent webinar, Susan Shirk, a renowned research professor and chair of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California San Diego, and Rana Mitter, director of the University China Center at the University of Oxford, shed light on China’s evolving geopolitical landscape. The webinar was based on Shirk’s book, “Overreach: How China Derailed its Peaceful Rise“. Shirk’s extensive career, which includes serving as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the Bureau of East Asia and Pacific Affairs, lends credibility to her expert analysis on China’s shifting geopolitical and economic strategies.
The Transformation of China: From Fragile Superpower to Global Heavyweight
China’s transformation from a fragile superpower to a formidable global player has raised concerns. The nation’s increasing assertiveness, particularly towards Taiwan and its neighbours in the South China Sea, has brought China’s geopolitical ambitions into sharp focus. The nation has also tightened its grip on Hong Kong and openly challenged the United States’ global preeminence, reflecting its ambition to ascend to the top of the global order.
China’s Overreach: A Double-Edged Sword
Shirk’s book delves into China’s overreach in foreign policy and the subsequent impact on its relationships with other nations, especially the United States. Central to these discussions is the issue of Taiwan. Debates swirl around whether China should prioritize stabilizing its economy or pursuing reunification with Taiwan.
The book also explores the crucial role of ideology in shaping China’s path under Xi Jinping’s leadership. While the Chinese Communist Party’s efforts to control ideology are not new, Xi’s push for change can potentially destabilize China, a stark departure from the approaches of his predecessors. These domestic issues, Shirk argues, significantly influence China’s policies towards Taiwan.
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin: A Potent Alliance
Xi Jinping’s meeting with Vladimir Putin in Moscow has raised concerns about their alignment and the potential impact on global dynamics. The specter of a Sino-Russian alliance adds a new dimension to the global geopolitical landscape, with implications that extend far beyond the two nations’ borders.
The Potential Consequences of Overreach
One of the central themes of the book is the idea that China’s overreach can lead to international backlash and the formation of coalitions against it. A case in point is the situation in Hong Kong. Beijing’s heavy-handed approach has intensified the perception of China as a threat, inflicting costs on both China and Hong Kong’s populace. This situation could have been managed differently, maintaining Hong Kong as a region drawing closer to the mainland without separating from it.
China’s Economic Direction: A Tense Balancing Act
Shirk also addresses China’s economic policy, notably its strategy of dual circulation, which aims to maintain a global trade surplus, increase domestic spending power, and keep the capital account closed. However, most economists find it challenging to see how these goals can be achieved simultaneously.
The Asia-Pacific Response to China’s Ambitions
Different Asian countries have varying attitudes toward China’s ambitions. While Northeast Asia expresses deep concern, Southeast Asia appears more ambivalent. Depending on how China’s overreach unfolds, the future may either accommodate China’s rise or witness a highly authoritarian, surveillance-driven state with economic and military strength in the Asia-Pacific region.
Historical Prudence vs. Future Uncertainty
Despite his aggressive posturing, Xi Jinping’s military actions remain uncertain. Historically, China has been prudent in avoiding military conflicts. But as China continues to flex its muscles, the world watches with bated breath.
“Overreach: How China Derailed its Peaceful Rise” provides an invaluable deep dive into China’s domestic and international policies,challenging conventional perspectives and offering a nuanced understanding of its geopolitical ambitions. Drawing on the insights of political insiders, the book offers a comprehensive examination of China’s past and present, providing essential context for understanding its future trajectory.
An Expert Perspective
The webinar and Shirk’s book serve as a crucial reminder of the importance of expert knowledge in understanding complex geopolitical phenomena. Past ideological projects in China, such as the Cultural Revolution and the Great Leap Forward, led to economic and human disasters. By analyzing and learning from these historical events, we can better anticipate and respond to China’s future actions.
Conclusion
China’s rapid rise and its implications for global politics demand careful scrutiny. “Overreach” offers an insightful analysis of China’s current path, highlighting the challenges and potential risks associated with its leadership’s ambitious strategies. As China continues to assert its global presence, understanding its intentions and actions becomes ever more critical for the rest of the world.
