Assessing the Impact of Liberation Day Tariffs
Event Description
In the wake of the sweeping “Liberation Day Tariffs” introduced by President Donald Trump, global markets, trade partners and domestic industries are grappling with a radically altered economic landscape. These tariffs — including a universal 10% duty on all imports and targeted rates as high as 145% on Chinese goods — have provoked international retaliation, disrupted supply chains, and significantly raised costs for American consumers and businesses alike.
This event will be hosted at the aptly named Library of Mistakes, where Dr Philip Luck will be in conversation with Russell Napier to provide insight into the rationale, consequences, and future trajectory of these measures. Drawing on historical experience with tariffs and trade shocks, Dr Luck will help place recent developments within a broader economic and geopolitical context.
Topics & Themes:
- Origins and Objectives – Why the tariffs were introduced and the political and legal basis behind them
- Domestic Impact – Effects on inflation, key industries, consumer prices, and business confidence
- Global Fallout – International retaliation, trade realignment, and challenges to multilateral cooperation
- Geopolitical Strategy – The role of tariffs in U.S.–China competition and broader economic nationalism
- Looking Ahead – Potential outcomes, policy reversals, and long-term implications for global trade
Speakers
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Dr. Philip LuckDirector, Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business - CSISDr Philip Luck is Director of the Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), where his research focuses on international trade, global supply chains, and the intersection of economic policy and geopolitics. He is a recognised authority on the historical and contemporary impacts of trade tariffs, with particular expertise in U.S.–China economic relations.
Dr Luck’s work combines rigorous empirical analysis with a deep understanding of economic history, allowing him to contextualise today’s policy decisions within broader global trends and past precedents. Prior to joining CSIS, he held academic posts at the University of Colorado and the University of British Columbia, and his research has been published in leading economic journals.
He is a sought-after commentator on trade policy and has advised both governmental and private-sector organisations on issues ranging from tariff impacts to supply chain resilience. Dr Luck holds a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Davis.
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Russell NapierFounder of the Library of Mistakes, and, Co-Founder of ERICRussell Napier is an accomplished financial historian, market strategist, and the founder of the Library of Mistakes, a globally respected institution dedicated to improving understanding of financial history and the recurring patterns of economic misjudgement.
With over 30 years of experience in global equity markets, Russell has advised institutional investors worldwide on macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. He is the author of the acclaimed book Anatomy of the Bear: Lessons from Wall Street’s Four Great Bottoms, which is widely regarded as essential reading for investors and policymakers alike.
Russell currently serves as the Keeper of the Library of Mistakes in Edinburgh and is co-founder of ERIC, a platform that promotes independent investment research. He also runs a course in financial history as part of the MBA programme at the University of St Andrews.
Hourly Schedule
- 18:00 - 18:30
- Registration & Networking
- 18:30 - 18:35
- Introductions by Roddy Gow OBE
- 18:35 - 18:50
- Opening Remarks - Philip Luck
- 18:50 - 19:10
- Open Discussion - Philip Luck & Russell Napier
- 19:10 - 19:30
- Q&A & Closing Remarks
- 19:30 - 20:00
- Refreshments & Networking