Middle East/West Asia
- Since mid-November, the Houthis, an Iran-backed militant group operating in Yemen, have stepped up attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea which is part of the main sea route connecting Europe to East Africa and Asia. The Houthis have declared war on Israel as a result of Israel’s military operations in the Gaza Strip. At present, the Houthis have adopted the strategy of seizing cargo ships, as their previous approach of firing ballistic missiles towards Israel has shown to be ineffective. Several countries now patrol the Southern Red Sea as part of Operation Prosperity Guardian (OPG) which notably does not involve Saudi Arabia or Egypt. According to the Atlantic Council, 7 out of the 10 biggest shipping companies have avoided the route through the Red Sea. Additionally, BP has halted oil and gas shipments through this region, leading to extended transit paths and rising costs.
- The 7-day-ceasefire between Israel and Hamas ended on the morning of the 1st of December. During the ceasefire, humanitarian assistance was delivered and prisoners were exchanged. The Israel Defense Force (IDF) alleged that Hamas launched a rocket into Israel an hour before the ceasefire was due to conclude. As a result, fighting resumed as Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Isreal, claimed that Hamas had failed to meet its obligations to release all prisoners and adhere to the ceasefire. In response, Hamas accused Israel of rejecting offers for the release of additional captives and blamed the country for resuming fighting. Moreover, the IDF mistakenly shot three Israeli hostages during an operation on 16th December. The IDF acknowledged the incident violated engagement rules and stated those soldiers involved will face disciplinary measures. On December 8th, a UN resolution proposed by the United Arab Emirates and backed by over 90 member states, urging for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza, was vetoed by the US, while the United Kingdom abstained. Subsequently, on December 22nd, the UN Security Council adopted a compromise resolution advocating for temporary ceasefires, enhanced humanitarian aid, and the establishment of corridors for aid delivery.
Central Asia
- Progress is being made in resolving the long-standing boundary dispute between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Officials from both nations report that 90% of the 604-mile (972 kilometre) border has been agreed upon following bilateral talks in the Southern Kyrgyz province of Batken. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov is optimistic about settling the dispute by the spring of next year. Both countries’ security chiefs have agreed to continue discussions on the remaining contested sections.
- Kyrgyz lawmakers passed a bill to change the country’s flag. Adopted one day after the country joined the United Nations in 1992, the current flag depicts a tunduk of a yurt and sun rays against a red backdrop. Initiated by President Sadyr Japarov, the amendment will straighten the sun rays, shifting away from a sunflower resemblance, aligning with the term “kunkarama,” which means ‘dependent’ as well as ‘sunflower’ in Kyrgyz.
South Asia
- The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by India’s current Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has secured a significant victory in three out of four major states. This comes as a big success ahead of the national general elections in May next year. The BJP won the states of Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh from the main opposition party, Congress, while holding on to Madhya Pradesh. These four states represent 160 million voters and account for 15% of the parliament seats.
- In Pakistan, former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who is currently incarcerated, was indicted in a state secret case but has been granted bail. This marks the second time Khan faces corruption charges, with the first indictment for a three-year prison sentence being overturned by a higher court due to procedural errors. Government officials accused Khan and his wife of receiving millions of dollars worth of land as a bribe from a real estate magnate. Despite being granted bail, Khan has remained in jail since early August, with no clear indication of release as Pakistan gears up for its general election on February 8th.
Southeast Asia
- Two boats carrying a total of 400 Rohingya refugees have been adrift in the Andaman Sea due to engine failure and urgently require rescue. Earlier this month, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) issued an urgent plea for coastal nations to provide assistance. While one of the boats was ultimately rescued, the fate of the other remains unknown. Every year, thousands of Rohingya Muslims undertake perilous sea voyages to escape persecution in Buddhist-majority Myanmar and dire conditions in overcrowded refugee camps in Bangladesh, often aiming for Malaysia or Indonesia.
- The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for an explosion at a Catholic mass in Marawi City at the Mindanao State University in the southern Philippines. The group announced that it targeted a congregation of “Christian disbelievers,” resulting in four fatalities. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has denounced the attack, attributing it to foreign terrorist involvement.
- China has mediated a ceasefire and encourage ongoing dialogue between Myanmar’s ruling military and rebel factions following an offensive initiated by the rebels on October 27th. The conflict, primarily in Northern Shan state, has displaced 300,000 individuals and raised concerns in neighbouring China. The mediation for a ceasefire and the pressure by China on the military junta to adhere to it show its influence in Myanmar.
- During Xi Jinping’s two-day visit to the Vietnamese capital Hanoi, China and Vietnam strengthened their bilateral relationship, signing 36 documents covering security, national defence, foreign policy and infrastructure development. This move by China to enhance ties with Vietnam follows the United States’ recent upgrade of its diplomatic relationship with Vietnam to the highest level in September. While China and Vietnam have aligned interests in economic areas, disagreements, for example, over the borders in the South China Sea remain.
East Asia
- At 4pm local time on New Year’s Day, an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.6 and its epicentre on the Noto peninsula in the Ishikawa Prefecture struck central Japan, leading to widespread destruction. Buildings have collapsed, and as of Tuesday morning, the death toll has reached 48, with rescuers working tirelessly to find survivors. While initially a tsunami warning was issued for the Sea of Japan, these warnings have now been downgraded to a tsunami advisory.
- Japan has announced it will sell Patriot missiles to the US starting in the first quarter of 2024, marking a reversal to the decade-old ban on the export of weapons. The policy change comes amidst a deterioration of relations with China and North Korea as well as a lack of military support to Ukraine. By supplying Patriot missiles to the US, Ukraine might benefit indirectly as additional capabilities become available to the US. Nevertheless, under the new export regulations, Japan maintains its prohibition on the direct export of military equipment to countries engaged in conflict.
- In the early morning of December 18th, a 6.2 magnitude earthquake struck the northwest Chinese provinces of Gansu and Qinghai, approximately 800 miles (1,300 kilometres) southwest of Beijing. By Christmas, the quake had resulted in 149 confirmed deaths, 1,000 injuries and the destruction of 14,000 homes. Gansu officials have estimated the earthquake caused approximately 532 million yuan (around £58.7 million) in damages to the agriculture and fisheries sectors.
- The anticipated trial of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy media tycoon, Jimmy Lai, has begun. Arrested in December 2020 under the newly implemented National Security Law (NSL), Lai continues to refute all allegations. His detention has provoked widespread international criticism with the UK and the US calling for Lai, who also holds British citizenship, to be released.
- North Korea has launched a long-range ballistic missile in the first round of tests in a month. Observers speculate that this action may be in reaction to the strengthened nuclear deterrence strategies of South Korea and the United States. The missile is believed to be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with a range of more than 9,300 miles (15,000 kilometres), putting the entirety of the United States within possible reach depending on the trajectory and warhead size. In response to this escalation, US and South Korean officials have agreed to incorporate nuclear operation scenarios in their joint exercises scheduled for the following summer, a move that North Korea has strongly condemned. Rising tensions are further exacerbated by North Korea’s launch of its first military reconnaissance satellite on November 21st, a move that defies United Nations prohibitions.